Greater Boston buyers: shop now, not in spring

If you're buying a home in Greater Boston, buy this winter. Don't wait for spring.

Here's why. Right now, most homes sell for less than the seller first asked. From April through July, most sold for the asking price or more. Last spring, buyers paid up. This fall, sellers are cutting.

Sellers are taking less

In October, 43% of Greater Boston homes sold for their first asking price or more. That means most, 57%, sold for less. A year earlier, 47% sold for asking or more.

Price cuts tell the same story. In early November, 2,681 of the 5,932 homes for sale in Greater Boston had already cut their price. That's 45%, nearly half.

Fewer homes are selling, too. 1,473 homes sold in October, 17% fewer than the 1,775 a year earlier. It wasn't for lack of choice: about as many homes came on the market (2,531, against 2,613 a year earlier). The October count is preliminary; a few late-reported sales may still be added.

Put it together: fewer sales, nearly half of listings cut, and most homes selling below asking. That's a market where buyers can push back on price.

Spring is when buyers lose that edge

Here's what happened over the past year in Greater Boston. In December and January, 36% of homes sold for asking or more. By May, 58% did. For single-family homes it was 66%: two out of three.

More homes come up for sale in spring: 4,004 new listings in April, against 1,625 in February. You'd expect that to help buyers. It didn't. The share selling at asking or more still went up. More homes, and still more competition.

Don't wait for a better deal

Buyers haven't gone away this fall. They signed 386 deals a week, on average, in the five weeks from Sep 28, up from 334 a week in the five weeks from Aug 3.

But new listings are falling: 479 in the week of Oct 26, down from 833 in the week of Sep 28, and close to the 493 of early August.

Steady buyers, fewer new homes each week. Don't count on your edge growing from here. It may shrink.

What to do

Buyers: shop now. Start with homes that have already cut their price; nearly half have. If last year repeats, by April you'll be competing again.

Sellers: price it right the first time. Nearly half the homes you're up against have already had to cut. Price it right and you'll face fewer new listings week to week, with buyers still making offers.

How we measured

Greater Boston here means Arlington, Bedford, Belmont, Boston, Braintree, Brookline, Burlington, Cambridge, Canton, Chelsea, Concord, Dedham, Everett, Framingham, Lexington, Lincoln, Lynn, Malden, Marblehead, Medford, Melrose, Milton, Natick, Needham, Newton, Norwood, Peabody, Quincy, Reading, Revere, Salem, Saugus, Somerville, Stoneham, Sudbury, Swampscott, Wakefield, Waltham, Watertown, Wayland, Wellesley, Weston, Westwood, Weymouth, Winchester, Winthrop and Woburn. Monthly figures cover single-family homes, condos and multi-family homes; weekly figures cover all listing types, including land. "At or above asking" compares the sale price with the first asking price. An "accepted offer" is a listing that went under agreement that week. Figures come from verified market data, refreshed each morning. A small number of withdrawn listings are missing from the data, so counts may run slightly low.